Estimating the Impacts of the Speculation and Vacancy Tax

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• While all BC markets experienced sharp declines since 2018, the Speculation and Vacancy tax (SVT) is estimated to have reduced home sales in taxable regions in BC by an additional 12.5 per cent compared to non-taxable regions. Growth in home prices since 2018 is estimated to be 5 per cent lower in taxable regions in BC compared with non-taxable regions due to the SVT.
• However, these impacts effectively disappear if Metro Vancouver markets are excluded from the analysis, suggesting the impact of the SVT has been limited to Metro Vancouver.
• A recovery of home sales is underway around the province, and without addressing significant supply issues, any progress made toward improved affordability looks to be short-lived.
• The SVT’s impact on the rental market also appears to be more material in Metro Vancouver, where there was a record increase in rental supply, yet it is not possible to disentangle this from impacts of the Empty Homes Tax and short-term rental regulations that were implemented around the same time.

For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 604.505.6793
[email protected]

Kellie Fong
Economist
Direct: 778.357.0831
Mobile: 604-366-6511
[email protected]

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