BCREA Nowcast

Nov 30, 2023

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Posted by
Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist

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BC Monthly Real GDP Estimate for September 2023 & Preliminary Estimate for October 2023

The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for September is 1.2 per cent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in September was 0.6 per cent. The preliminary estimate for October year-over-year growth was up slightly to 1.4 per cent. The output level continues to flatten month-over-month, suggesting very little growth over the past few months. The average annual growth through the first ten months of 2023 is estimated at 1.6 per cent.

The BCREA Nowcast now also includes regional growth trends, grouped into five regions: Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, Thompson Okanagan, Kootenay, and the North. Those regional nowcasts show slow growth across regions of BC and indicate a contraction in the North, largely due to falling commodity prices and associated employment impacts.

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Download the full report (PDF)

Growth of provincial GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, but provincial GDP data is only available annually and with a considerable delay. That's why we developed the BCREA Nowcast – a tool for tracking monthly growth in the BC Economy. The Nowcast compiles monthly economic data into one easy to understand number, expressed as the year-over-year growth in the BC economy.

As the underlying economic data is released with a one- or two-month lag, our estimates for monthly growth will also lag real-time by two months (e.g., estimated growth in January will be published at the end of March). There are no adjustments to the model estimate except for those due to revisions to the underlying data.

For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 604.505.6793
Email: [email protected]

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