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Summary of Findings:

• A tariff on all Canadian imports to the United States would have serious consequences for the Canadian and BC economies.
• A 25 per cent tariff would push both the Canadian and BC economies into recession, and the impact could be compounded by a broader trade war and retaliatory tariffs by Canada.
• Under the most likely scenario, the BC housing market would see a temporary decline in activity before posting a robust recovery as mortgage rates decline substantially, thereby unleashing pent-up demand.

Until quite recently, the Canadian economic outlook appeared clear. After a relatively “soft landing,” Canada was braced for a stronger 2025, driven by higher consumption and business investment on the back of lower interest rates.

However, that outlook has become much cloudier following the results of the American election. More specifically, threats of tariffs from the newly installed American administration have sent bond markets, economists, and the Bank of Canada into a frenzy of uncertainty. Given the strong bilateral trade activity and integrated supply chains that underpin both economies, broad-based American tariffs, coupled with potential Canadian retaliation, could have serious implications for the Canadian economy and the housing market.

This Market Intelligence report seeks to unpack the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs by exploring several potential tariff scenarios and their implications for the BC housing market.

For more information, please contact:  

Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 604.505.6793
Email: [email protected]

Amit Sidhu
Economist
Direct: 604.677.9345
Email: [email protected]

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